2007 in Movies: A Year of Conglomerates; 2008: More Sequels and Biblical Sagas
The past year proved, once and for all, that Hollywood is owned by the major entertainment conglomerates, insists Shootout co-host Peter Bart. The big films of the year, he says, were $200-million to $300-million efforts with huge marketing budgets behind them. The third Shrek installment made $798 million worldwide, and the third Pirates of the Caribbean took in $961 million. It was also a year of big Internet deals and efforts by the mega entertainment companies. The writers' strike, to a degree, resulted from conglomerate moves online, says Bart.
Peter Guber, Shootout's co-host, counters that '07 was the year of the little guy—specifically, of the writers who walked away from their typewriters and onto the picket lines. To him, the strike may have been the defining event of the year.
The resultant (and lengthy) work stoppage is now steering viewers even more strongly to alternate media, such as the Internet and video games. The advertising tsunami cresting online—$21 billion last year—may grow even faster now since audiences abandoning movies and TV aren't guaranteed to come back, Guber adds.
For 2008, Bart predicts Mike Huckabee will win the presidency and Hollywood will produce more Biblical sagas: Evan Almighty will return starring Republican favorite Chuck Norris. As to the actors boycotting the Golden Globes because of the strike, they'll be replaced by stunt doubles and ratings will soar. The strike will also cause Fox to schedule American Idol seven days per week, leading it to win the ratings war against Deal or No Deal.
More seriously, Guber says '07 witnessed a tidal wave of capital into Hollywood that overcrowded theaters with films that should never have been made. He predicts that this money will dry up in '08, and studios will be faced with a choice between self-financing or reducing their output (as Disney has already done). However, the success of so many sequels in '07 means more of the same this year.
Guber notes that all these predictions are at best page two stories and the big news of '08 remains unforeseen. Bart agrees, confident none of his predictions will actually come to pass.
While last year was the year of the corporate conglomerate I agree with Guber about it also being the year of the little guy. I think 2008 will be much the same but with less content being distributed via traditional channels. I think the internet, specifically video-on-demand will make a bigger impact on the market than most experts have predicted.
I also believe there will be less content overall due to the WGA strike. I do not see any meaningful resolution to this dispute before May, maybe even sometime into the summer. In the end I think the writers will get something, but not all they want. This is ultimately a war of attrition and it's about who can hold out the longest. The studios and media companies have money and time on their side. The question is can they survive without quality material for an extended period of time. My guess is they can't. Personally, I can only handle so much "reality" programming, and I'm very specific about what I'll watch.
More distribution channels can only exist if there's sufficient demand. Without enough product the system cannot sustain itself. Someone will have to give in. My guess is the studios and corporate media will have to give the writers some of what they want. The market potential is too vast and there's enough money to go around. Letting the strike go on too long is suicide for all involved.
I think Obama will probably become our next President, especially if Michael Bloomberg runs as a third party candidate. I do not see a resurgence of Biblical epics. Most of what passes itself of as "Christian" entertainment is actually quite bad, especially series like "Left Behind". If they do remake "The Ten Commandments" I hope it's in Hebrew, and with an eye on historical accuracy.