John Scalzi - Box Office Predictions for Wolverine, Trek and a Summer of SciFi
The summer movie season used to start on Memorial Day, but even in a recession there's money to be made, and the studios are planning to make it. So now we kick off the first weekend in May with X-Men Origins: Wolverine. How will it do? And how will scifi movies do this summer? Well, clearly I'm here to tell you.
Disclosure: I haven't seen any of these yet. These predictions here are based on previews, gossip, and my own mystical skills developed over nearly two decades as a film critic and commentator. Got it? Excellent.
May 1: X-Men Origins: Wolverine
On the one hand it's focused on the most popular X-Man out there and Hugh Jackman looks suitably badass. On the other hand, the last X-Men movie was both goofy and disappointing, and I suspect this one's going to have to be really excellent to make up for it. The fact that the movie leaked on the Internet, oddly enough, might help combat that.
Box Office Prediction: Hit -- but only a medium-sized one.
May 8: Star Trek
Trekkies don't like to admit this, but save for the 1979 movie, all the Star Trek flicks are "programmers" -- moderately-budgeted movies designed to draw in a moderately-sized fanbase. This time around, though, Paramount is pulling out all the stops to make the reboot a summer tentpole -- and it shows in the A-list production talent (director J.J. Abrams, writers Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci) as well as the A-list marketing. The early reviews have been great, too.
Box Office Guess: Blockbuster -- easily over $200 million, $250 million is not out of the question and could even make it to $300 million if the geeks come back for seconds (and thirds).
May 21: Terminator Salvation
This one is in the same boat as Wolverine: Interest is high, but Terminator 3 was nothing to write home about. I'm also personally wary of director McG, whose work on the Charlie's Angels movies does not exactly inspire confidence. That said, the previews for the movie have been amazing, so the young guys who will make up its core first weekend audience are all on board.
Box Office Guess: Blockbuster -- it's going to have huge first weekend no matter what, and then the question is whether it has legs to top Star Trek over the whole summer.
June 5: Land of the Lost
Will Ferrell visits the land of Sid and Marty Krofft. Inasmuch as it's based on a Saturday morning cartoon show that only people over the of 35 remember, this has the potential to become this year's Speed Racer. On the other hand it doesn't look like it's taking itself at all seriously, and that may be a plus.
Box Office Prediction: Hit -- but just barely. It might drag itself over the $100 million mark.
June 24: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The 2007 Transformers flick was, oddly, the least stupid Michael Bay flick yet and grossed almost $320 million. This one is coming back with the same talent in front of and behind the screen, so it won't take any rocket science for me to predict how it'll do.
Box Office Prediction: Blockbuster -- but will it make as much as the first one? I'm going to say no, but it'll cruise to at least the $250 million mark no matter what.
July 24: G Force
Genetically engineered gerbils fight the forces of evil! Jerry Bruckheimer's attached to produce, and given his ability to deliver family-friendly action (the National Treasure series) and the inexplicable success of Alvin & the Chipmunks, it's possible that rodent secret agents are just the thing family audiences are screaming for.
Box Office Prediction: Hit -- although if it gets to $200 million I may kill myself on general principle.
August 7: G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra
A line of popular children's toys becomes an action movie designed for geeks who never quite grew up. Hey, it worked for Transformers. That said, I question whether the affection for G.I. Joe is at the same levels as Optimus Prime, or whether (and I can't believe I'm writing this) director Stephen Sommers has the same facility for large-scale, toy-based action as Michael Bay.
Box Office Prediction: Dud -- maybe the early August release will help by being a last gasp before kids head to school. But I see this one going thunk.
Your thoughts on what's going to be big and what's not this summer?
Winner of the Hugo Award and the John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer, John Scalzi is the author of The Rough Guide to Sci-Fi Movies and the novels Old Man's War and Zoe's Tale. He's also Creative Consultant for the upcoming Stargate: Universe television series. His column appears every Thursday.
Nice article. Though I gotta give Terminator and Transformers the edge over Trek at the box office. Trek will be big (and likely the better movie), but I think the general public will choose the familiar (giant robots, explosions, big name stars like Christian Bale and The LaBeouf) over a cast made of up-and-comers and TV actors.
Plus, I worry that Trek just plains skews old (there hasn't been a TV series for the kids to latch onto in a while). That said, the movie will introduce the Trek concept and universe to a whole new generation, who hopefully won't find it quaint and outdated.
I'm thinking Land of the Lost will be a dud, because people who remember the TV series fondly will be offended at the stupidity of it (my friends certainly have been so far), and people who don't remember it won't care. Then again, there are a lot of people who will see anything Will Ferrell is in so maybe there are enough of them to make this a hit.
*cough* The critters in G-Force are guinea pigs, not gerbils.
Is it bad that if they were gerbils, I'd be so not interested, but I'm all over some guinea pig action heroes?
As for Land of the Lost, Will Ferrell is an active turnoff for me, and the Sleestaks always freaked me out when I was a kid...but it actually looks fun.
Wolverine, I'm thinking of hitting the midnight show, if we have such a thing in the backwaters of Utah. We got it for Watchmen (two screens in the theater I was at, both mostly sold out; this is an accomplishment in a state where the predominant religion actively discourages its members from going to R-rated movies), so I'm hopeful. I think this one is going to be epic. And even if it's not, Hugh Jackman's arms will make it worth it. Sue me, I'm shallow.
I have seen the leaked Wolverine trailer and I don't see how they can save it. It's actually quite good for the first half or two-thirds but the climax and denouement are suspension-shatteringly bad. Especially for those of us who are actually familiar with the comics.... or geography.... or history.... or physics.
Me? I'm waiting for Moon. That looks like it might be pretty good. Probably not a blockbuster though.
No Harry Potter? I guess that's fantasy, not SciFi. That's the summer flick I'm most excited about!
I'm more of a fan of TNG... not too sure I care about the backstory of ToS characters. Of course, I'll probably go see Star Trek anyways.
No Will Smith movie this summer?
I think Star Trek will be the #1 blockbuster.
As an original Star Trek fan(Yes, I saw The Man Trap on first run), I'm looking forward to the reboot. You're more optimistic than I, considering how the geeks have been pissing and moaning since it was first announced.
Land of The Lost looks ridiculous. I've never seen a Will Ferrell movie(and I never hope to see one) and, however cheesy both series were, they at least tried to take themselves serious.
Never a Transformers fan, the first was okay. Some younger relatives are hopped up though.
I've grown tired of the Terminator franchise, especially after THAT TV series. The fact that they are finally getting to the war might help it.
Star Trek is certainly getting enough push from Paramount that it pretty much has to succeed. If it doesn't it'll probably be the end of the franchise.
I haven't seen anything except posters for G.I. Joe so I have no idea how it will do. But the lack of promotion is a bad sign.
And of course, Harry Potter is due out mid-July...
@ Randy Johnson
I think the thing about Star Trek is, that while *some* of the geeks have been pissing and moaning, a lot of non-geeks are excited about it.
My wife does not like Star Trek, in fact, she goes out of her way to avoid it, but when I showed her the previews for it, she said, "Wait. That actually looks great."
Star Trek will be very interesting box office wise. My wife is a life-long Trekker and isn't interested in seeing it since there is only one Kirk, Spock, McCoy etc. in her mind. I'm planning to see it since it's SF and while I've enjoyed Star Trek in most of its iterations, I'm not a die hard fan by any means.
I had no interest in (or even knowledge of) a movie based on G.I. Joe, but the trailer was great and got me interested. If this is decently reviewed, my kids and I will see it.
I'll don my predicting cap and hazard that Transformers 2 will not come close to doing as well as the first one did.
Agree with most of your analysis, John, but you are wrong about one thing. Land of the Lost had a short run in the early 90's as a remake. I'm under 35 and fondly remember it because I had a crush on the daughter. So there may be a bigger audience than you predict.
Pardon my language, but Ferrell pissing on my childhood has not made me a happy camper. That said, my roommate who's a Ferrell fan is planning on going.
I know the show was kind of goofy, but I also remember it not talking down to me.
I have mixed feelings about Star Trek, I'll probably go but the business with "I'm James Tiberius Kirk" strikes me as flat out stupid.
I had forgotten there was a G.I. Joe movie, I'll probably forget it again.
I had no real interest in Star Trek until I saw the trailer...now it's the must see for me. Any of the others could be hits or misses, but Star Trek will be one to beat based on the early reviews, the trailer, and what feels to me to be good timing on reviving the franchise.
I -hope- Terminator does well, but franchise fatigue may hurt it.
Wolverine is the most likely to fail--early viewers haven't loved it, and I doubt reviewers will either.
Land of the Lost--moderate interest and moderate talents will combine to create a moderate hit.
Transformers is anybody's guess--the original was so well received though, it would have to be pretty bad to be a dud.
I want to see Star Trek, Terminator: Salvation, and Wolverine. Land of the Lost could be fun...
The others, I don't care that much about.
Out of the three I do want to see, I think Wolverine has the most to lose. I still want it to be good, but I don't think it will be as good as the first two X-Men films. I hope they can do enough business to justify a movie of Wolverine in Japan, though...
I hope they can do enough business to justify a movie of Wolverine in Japan, though...
If they could modernize Kitty Pryde and Wolverine as well as the 2nd film did with God Loves, Man Kills I'd be first in line. Especially if they recast Ellen Page as Shadowcat.
Re: Wolverine, I think you may have forgotten to adjust your numbers to account for the number of women (and men) who will be paying full retail price to see this movie for the pure porntastic value it provides.
I plunked down my hard-earned dollars for just that reason when the Jackman/Wolverine juggernaut was merely a small part of an ensemble cast. Now that we've got two hours of almost non-stop Hugh Jackmany, fully-buffed, half-naked snarly goodness? Well, let's just say that absorbency will be figuring into my wardrobe choices that evening.
I just saw the new Star Trek movie. I think Scalzi's right but I have a feeling that it won't be the old series fans that make it a blockbuster.