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John Scalzi - Things We Learned From the Summer SciFi Box Office

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The summer movie season closed up on Monday, breaking box office records (albeit just barely: $4.2 billion compared to last summer's $4.18 billion -- which means that factoring in inflation, slightly fewer tickets were sold this year than last) and becoming a banner season for science fiction and fantasy movies. Depending on whether one wants to lump The Dark Knight into the tally (as "dark superhero fantasy"), seven of the summer's top ten films were SF/F-based. Geeks can hardly complain about that.

Aside from "big expensive special effects movies make a lot of money in the summer," what lessons have we learned from the 2008 summer movie season, as they involve science fiction and fantasy movies? Here are a few to consider.

1. Smart is in: What do The Dark Knight and Iron Man have in common, aside from each being based on comic books and each grossing north of $300 million? The answer I'm looking for was that they were both critically lauded for being exceptionally smart films -- an accolade unusual enough for summer blockbusters but pretty much unheard of for films in which the hero spends much of his time behind a mask. Both these films had action, adventure and effects up the wazoo, but then, so did Speed Racer, and look where that ended up (on second thought, don't. It's too gruesome). Add Wall*E -- the best reviewed and most clever major film of the year so far -- and its $200 million-plus box office to the mix, and you come to a tantalizing conclusion that yes, actually, intelligence is a value-add to summer sf/f blockbusters. Will Hollywood take this lesson to heart? Almost certainly not. But when three films add up to a billion dollars in domestic box office and the only connecting thread between them is intelligence, it's more than a sign.

2. Let TV shows stay on TV: Speed Racer and X-Files: I Want to Believe combined grossed about $65 million -- or a couple million dollars less than what The Dark Knight made on its opening Friday. The problem: The assumption of an audience that just wasn't there. In the case of Speed Racer, the belief seemed to be that Gen-X affection for a kitchsy Japanamation staple of their seven-year-old selves' afterschool TV habits would translate into massive box office. But apparently too few of us Gen-Xers liked it enough to subject ourselves to two hours of seizure-inducing Wachowski Brothers stiltedness. With X-Files, the problem was even simpler: All the X-Files audience had long since transferred their allegiance to Joss Whedon and J.J. Abrams (and even that's not enough -- see: Serenity).

Speaking of Abrams, how will this sf/f audience rejection of reheated TV affect his Star Trek reboot? I suspect not at all -- Star Trek has long since become its own cultural phenomenon, something neither Speed Racer nor X-Files can claim, and Paramount has done a fine job of geek-stoking with its Star Trek pre-release publicity. It's going to have to stink really bad to fail. But the fact that Abrams is having to reboot Star Trek at all brings us to our next lesson:

3. Even the mighty franchises can fall: George Lucas had the mightiest rejection of the Star Wars universe to date -- Star Wars Christmas Special notwithstanding -- when his animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars movie barely snuck past $30 million. On one hand, no one expected Clone Wars to do the standard-issue Star Wars film business, since the movie was basically repurposed episodes of the upcoming animated TV series that will show on Cartoon Network. But on the other, the critical and fan reaction to the movie was so bad that the Cartoon Network execs can't be happy that Lucas has essentially shot the TV series in the foot. Right about now, they're probably wishing Lucas had followed lesson two in this list. The failure of The Clone Wars is not nearly close to being fatal -- this is the franchise that survived the entire prequel trilogy -- but it does remind us that even hardcore fans have their limits. At least the Star Wars video games are still good.

It's not only Star Wars that saw a dropoff this summer: Prince Caspian, the second Chronicles of Narnia movie, took in less than half of its predecessor (although that was a still respectable $141 million), the third Mummy film has yet to crack $100 million, which puts it also at about half the gross of its predecessor, and of course there's the X-Files movie, doing double duty in this entry as well with its $20 million gross.

4. Will Smith + SF = $200 million: I don't think there's ever been a more reliable science fiction/fantasy box office star than Will Smith; Harrison Ford comes close, but he had two wildly popular franchises to wrap around him, whereas Will Smith racks up huge numbers in standalone films (I Robot, I Am Legend, Hancock) as well as in his Men in Black franchise. All I know is that if I were making a science fiction movie, the first thing I would do would be to pay Will Smith whatever he wanted to get him in it. Everything else from that point would be easy. As with everything, Will Smith's moment on top won't last. But we're still in that moment.

Thus endeth my 2008 summer sf/f lessons. Thoughts? And do you have any lessons to add?

scalzi.pngWinner of the Hugo Award and the John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer, John Scalzi is the author of The Rough Guide to Sci-Fi Movies as well as the novels Old Man's War and Zoe's Tale, which was released this week. His column appears every Thursday.

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Filed under: John Scalzi
Tags: iron man, summer movies, the dark knight, will smith

Comments

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So john, does this mean we'll get to see Will Smith "aw HELL naw"-ing his way through the role of John Perry, should your book be adapted for the big screen?

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The studie suits will not learn a lesson about intellegence. They will learn "People really like special effects!" and so we will be treated to years of mind-numbing special effects bonanzas with plots flimsier than a congressman's wedding vows.

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I think it important to also realize that, while Batman and Ironman were indeed smart films, they also had heroes who didn't have "superpowers" helping them solve their issues. In my opinion, the reason these films worked so well in the scifi arena is that these are characters who think about problems and come up with scientific solutions. Batman may easily be my favorite comic book hero because of this. And Ironman...a little deductive reasoning means that, should you say, need a magnet attached to your chest to keep you alive, you build one that lasts forever. Sure, it might not actually be scientifically possible right now. And sure, having billions of dollars at your disposal, as both Batman and Ironman do, definitely helps. But at the end of the day they are more like detectives and less like supermen.

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He's a little old for the refurbed John Perry, who is supposed to look about 20. I'd be happy to see him play Harry Creek in an Android's Dream movie, though.

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Will Smith has gotten so good at summer scifi blockbusters that I wanted him to do like Pierce Brosnan and make a movie based on a drunken, has-been version of his persona.

Then I realized he did.

Hancock.

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Haven't audiences always liked smart films over incredibly pointless ones? (Sorry, I'm thinking of how much I loathed the plotless Napoleon Dynamite...)

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John, have you seen Speed Racer? I had zero interest in it, but for some reason wound up seeing it - and had Fun (note the capital letter) for 2 hours. Aside from the Epilepsy-inducing graphics in the third act, I would highly recommend seeing it (albeit in a theater). That was what a summer escapist film should be. Turn down the brain, laugh, look at the incredibly pretty pictures and have fun for a couple of hours. Iron Man/Wall-E/Dark Knight it ain't.

But for a light piece of summer fare, I'd really recommend it, doubly so if you have kids (which we all know you do. :)

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#2 only seems to be true for SF/F, it seems. How Sex in the City grossed so much is beyond me.

I think another failing with the X-Files was that Carter kept too much under wrap for too long. A lot of people completely missed the movie coming out because they didn't know anything about it. That, and it seems their abandonment of the alien mythology really annoyed some hardcore fans.

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Speaking to the firstie (such as it is), clearly John plans to play John (!!) himself. This will justify all the plastic surgery and implants (mostly hair, I suspect) Krissy has been nagging him about. We all know he's been playing way above his head for years.

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